Linking Market Maker Inventory Risk to Asset Prices: A New Option Market Intermediary Risk Factor

Objective

This proposal introduces a new risk factor for the cross-section of asset returns based on option market maker activity. Financial markets increasingly rely on derivatives such as options to transfer risk, yet traditional models often overlook how intermediaries' behavior affects asset prices. Using signed volume data differentiated by investor type from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), this research constructs a factor that captures the impact of market makers' inventory imbalances on the pricing of financial assets. This factor is motivated by theories of heterogeneous agents, financial intermediation, and risk transfer mechanisms, where options markets play a critical role in reallocating risks across investors and intermediaries. The main objective is to provide a more accurate, empirically validated framework for understanding asset returns, risk premia, and market dynamics. The project combines expertise in financial econometrics, asset pricing, and derivatives markets to test how this new factor improves risk measurement and asset price prediction beyond traditional risk factors. The outcomes of this research will benefit investors, policymakers, and regulators by offering tools to enhance risk management, assess financial stability, and better understand how derivative markets influence the broader economy. The research aligns with the European Union’s goals of promoting financial stability, economic resilience, and innovation in financial markets. This action, to be developed at Nova SBE in Portugal under the supervision of Prof. M. Boons, will not only address the described relevant research questions as it will also provide training and career development to improve my skills and foster my future career. By joining Nova SBE, I will expand my network and strengthen complementary skills. In turn, I will bring my expertise in financial econometrics and derivatives to significantly expand their research capacity.