EquiTable policy for accelerating the diffUsion of lOw-caRbon heating technology

Objective

The TUDOR project develops a modular bottom-up framework to assess the joint distributional impacts of carbon pricing, compensation payments, and technology subsidies in the EU residential sector. It links the EU-wide tax-benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD with the BENCH Agent-Based model (ABM) to capture household behavioural responses along the intensive (energy use reduction) and extensive (technology adoption, retrofitting) margin. I will develop a BENCH module to simulate household energy consumption and investment in heat pumps and building retrofits. I will statistically match secondary EU datasets on climate attitudes and knowledge (Eurobarometer) into EUROMOD datasets to reduce the need for costly survey data collection and enable behavioural modelling across all Member States. The model will explicitly describe household decision-making rules, incorporating elements of rational choice and contextual behavioural factors. I will validate model projections against observed adoption rates. The linked EUROMOD-BENCH model will be complemented by building stock, energy price, and energy demand projections from MESSAGEix and MESSAGEix-Buildings models STURM and CHILLED. To identify barriers and enablers of heat pump and retrofit diffusion, I will develop an innovation systems map through stakeholder interviews, describing the roles, goals, and strategies of key actors in the diffusion process. By combining these models, the project develops an interdisciplinary modelling framework to evaluate the equity (and effectiveness) of EU fiscal climate policy ex-ante, computing monetary costs and benefits of EU-wide carbon pricing and country-specific taxes, benefits, and technology subsidies using representative samples of EU member states' population. This framework will be used to assess the equity impacts of EU ETS2 and Member States' Social Climate Plans, combining insights from economics, behavioural science, engineering, and innovation studies.