Enhancing Resilience through Multi-Hazard Impact and Recovery Analysis of Road Networks in a Changing Climate

Objective

Europe faces an urgent need to bolster the disaster and climate resilience of its road networks, arteries underpinning socioeconomic well-being and emergency response. World Bank reports and key studies highlight that ageing bridges, embankments, and road sections are increasingly vulnerable to flooding, landslides, and other rainfall-driven hazards intensified by climate change. Unaddressed, these hazards can trigger cascading failures with severe socioeconomic consequences. Research often focuses on single hazards or isolated network components, overlooking complex multi-hazard interactions and their compounded community impacts, leading to skewed risk assessments and suboptimal resilience investments. The ERMHIRA framework offers a unified, end-to-end computational approach for multi-hazard impact and recovery analysis of road networks under evolving climate conditions. ERMHIRA integrates physics-based scenario generation across present-day and mid-century climate states; dynamic fragility and vulnerability modelling of infrastructure under sequential hazards; recovery-process simulation that captures delays from permitting, financing, and partial repairs; network-level impact assessment via dynamic Bayesian networks to quantify connectivity loss and restoration timelines; and a GIS-based decision-support platform for testing, prioritising, and selecting resilience measures through risk-informed, multi-criteria analysis. Applied to a 5132 km heterogeneous road network in Hertfordshire, England, comprising approximately 202 congestion hotspots, the ERMHIRA framework will leverage the Host Institution’s stakeholder partnerships to test and optimise performance. ERMHIRA will deliver actionable outputs (datasets, software modules, and best-practice guidelines) to equip engineers, planners, and policymakers with critical insights for designing climate-adaptive, multi-hazard-resilient road infrastructure across Europe.