Invasive and Native Flowering phenology Responses to climate change in Mediterranean-type ecosystems

Objective

Changes in temperature and precipitation are altering flowering phenology (the timing of onset and duration), affecting plant reproduction, pollinator diversity, and other species interactions. In biodiversity hotspots such as Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), which host ~20% of global plant biodiversity, phenological shifts have major implications for the abundance and diversity of floral resources and the animals that rely on them. Moreover, the biodiversity of hotspots is increasingly threatened by climate change and biological invasions. Invasive plant species act synergistically with climate change, displacing native species, disrupting pollination, and elevating public health risks by shifting the allergenic pollen season (already costing >€223 billion annually in Europe). The economic cost of plant invasions in the Mediterranean Basin – the most diverse MTE – is also high: >€9 billion over the past 30 years. Since ~50% of the Basin lies within Europe, these ecological and economic impacts are critical for the continent. Flowering time is a powerful but underused metric that can be used to forecast and to mitigate the ecological and economic impacts of climate change and biological invasions. The INFloR project aims to measure flowering phenology and its climate sensitivity in native vs. invasive angiosperms across MTEs and to forecast flowering responses under future climate scenarios, focusing on Mediterranean Basin grasses. Using literature, herbarium and citizen science data, climate records, species traits, and recently developed analytical approaches, I will (1) compare phenological overlap of natives and invasives, (2) estimate phenological sensitivity to climate, (3) assess trait-based and historical drivers, and (4) develop forecasting tools. Results will inform invasive species management (e.g., the optimum time for mowing or manual removal) and improve predictions of allergenic pollen season, advancing both biodiversity conservation and health.